December 2nd 2024

This edition of Mouth Daily comes from Nick Douglas.

CFB Rankings
The unveiling of the fifth College Football Playoff (CFP) rankings of 2024 comes with heightened anticipation later today. In what has been one of the wildest college football seasons in recent memory, this past weekend was the icing on the cake. With upsets and fights happening all day Saturday, seven ranked teams fell. The CFP speculation machine will be aggressively churning until selection Sunday on December 8th.

As the CFP committee convenes to decide the fate of teams on the cusp of greatness, let’s delve into a look into the teams in contention. These projections stem from a thorough analysis of head-to-head results, strength of schedule, victories over ranked opponents, and the ineffable “eye test” that often sways deliberations.

The Top Four: The Pinnacle of Contention

1. Oregon (12-0) The Ducks’ undefeated record is a beacon of consistency. They’ve had their rough games but are the only unbeaten team across the FBS. Their dominance on both sides of the ball ensures they retain the top spot as the nation’s premier team. Their grip on No. 1 is ironclad barring a loss in the Big 10 championship to Penn state. 
2. Texas (11-1) The Longhorns’ emphatic victory in the dormant rivalry with Texas A&M adds a signature win to previously questionable résumé. This triumph propels them into the SEC favorite, affirming their resurgence as a national powerhouse. They face Georgia Saturday at 4pm ET in Atlanta. 
3. Penn State (11-1) A steady climb in the rankings for the Nittany Lions is bolstered by Ohio State’s stumble against Michigan. Penn State’s ascension reflects the committee’s appreciation for their overall body of work. Whether they are poised for a deep run is another question. 
4. Notre Dame (11-1) The Fighting Irish escaped USC with a 49-35 win, cementing their playoff aspirations amidst chaos. They look primed to host a first-round game in late December. 

The safe zone

5. Tennessee (10-2) A victory over Vanderbilt locks the Volunteers into playoff contention. Their strong finish positions them well for a first-round home game, capping a stellar season.
6. SMU (11-1) The Mustangs’ triumph over Cal secures their place in the ACC Championship. A strong performance year-round from Rhett Lashlee’s group in their first season competing in the ACC makes for a stellar Cinderella story. Whether this one continues into January is up for debate. Coming off a 38-6 thumping of Cal, the ‘stangs look poised to make a run deep into the playoff.
7. Georgia (10-2) An 8-Overtime victory over Georgia tech late Saturday effectively secured the Dawgs a spot in the playoff. Marred by inconsistency from Carson Beck, Kirby Smart’s squad has stumbled to 10-2 with signature wins over Tennessee and Texas. 
8. Indiana (11-1) Where did this team come from? Outside of a bad loss in Columbus, Curt Cignetti’s first year in Indiana has been a resounding success, as they have seemingly cruised to 11 wins. Beating an 11-LOSS Purdue team doesn’t elevate their résumé much, but the Hoosiers have earned the right to host a round 1 game.
9. Ohio State (10-2) The jury is still out on whether Ryan Day sits on the hot seat after dropping his fourth straight rivalry game to an unranked Michigan this past weekend. Despite a 10-point performance at home, the Buckeyes remain playoff-bound. High-quality wins over Penn State and Indiana pads their resumé, though they will likely be on the road in round 1. 
10. Boise State (11-1) Boise State ought to crack the top 10 this week, as they have handled the Mountain west with ease and even gave Oregon a run for their money in week 2. Their consistency across the board, spearheaded by Heisman hopeful Ashton Jeanty, makes them a team to watch as the postseason approaches.

• Arizona State (10-2) and Iowa State (10-2) control their destiny in the Big 12 conference championship game.

On the bubble: SEC Chaos and Redemption

Ole Miss (9-3), Alabama (9-3), and South Carolina (9-3) all sit on the outside looking in…for now. Ole miss has been a roller coaster ride all year, and the committee will have to seriously deliberate on whether it comes to an end now. The Crimson Tide’s bad loss in Norman two weeks back left the door wide open, while the Gamecocks’ dramatic victory over Clemson reshapes the narrative. Although they lost head-to-head matchups against Alabama and Ole Miss, Beamer’s squad looks like one of the hottest teams in the country right now. Will the committee look more into Head-to-head matchups or overall momentum and excitement? 

Outside looking in

• Miami (10-2) fell precipitously after a loss to Syracuse, underscoring the fragility of playoff hopes without victories over ranked opponents.
• UNLV (10-2) entered the rankings with a crucial Mountain West title game looming against red hot Boise State, adding another layer of intrigue to the playoff puzzle.

As we head into conference championship week, it’s important to note that these games will not be held against teams that lose. Your 3-loss SEC contingent will likely get vocal about their strength of schedule, while Miami fans will cross their fingers and hope for some love toward their high-octane quarterback Cam Ward. Irrespective of what happens, these fanbases will feel every kind of emotion come December 8th. There will be shocks, surprises, and perhaps even…mistakes.